Strategy Memo: Oregon Republicans should campaign on increasing pay for new teachers

It is long past time we picked up the hint Republicans in other states are dropping

Since the 2010 red wave, Oregon Republicans have struggled to win voters in the Portland suburbs. A handful of close election results from 2022 suggest we have made inroads, but the gains have yet to be sufficient for Republican legislative majorities or repeatable statewide victories. Certainly, Democrats have done a good job gerrymandering these districts within an inch of their lives to be resistant to flipping.

The maps being what they are, how can Republicans continue to make inroads into these suburban communities who have struggled under Democrat trifecta control of Oregon government?

Republicans should campaign on and then pass a pay raise for new teachers.

Here’s why.

COVID relief money is almost gone

ESSER III Fund grants can be used to reimburse eligible expenses incurred between March 13, 2020 and September 30, 2024.

The Oregon Department of Education (ODE) website says that Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief Funds (ESSER) that were made available by the federal American Rescue Plan COVID relief package is only authorized to reimburse expenses through September 30 of this year.

This week marks the end of the ‘23-’24 school year for most districts in Oregon. It is the first school year to require significant COVID mitigation. For the past two school years, ESSER funds have essentially acted as a side account or slush fund for many Oregon school districts and certainly the larger districts. The end of these dollars means a return to traditional funding resources: the State School Fund, local property taxes, and any existing bonds for buildings or levies for operations.

Teachers are striking all over the state

Teachers struck in Portland last year with the result of delaying school. Strikes in Salem-Keizer and Bend-La Pine appear to have been averted last minute. The superintendents of these districts (along with Medford) recently released a video outlining some of the cuts they are having to make pleading with parents and the broader community to make a new school funding formula a key political issue for the ‘25-27 budget.

Republicans in other states continue to raise teacher pay

Earlier this week, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced an initiative to raise teacher pay. Missouri Governor Mike Parson signed a new $40k minimum salary into law last month. School districts asked him to veto the bill because the state didn’t commit to funding it. Arizona, Georgia, Utah and other red states are doing the same.

Going as far back as 2020, it became clear in the media that raising teacher pay was an initiative Republicans were specifically spearheading.

Read: Why Are So Many Republicans Raising Teacher Salaries?

Not only did nearly 1,800 respondents in swing states say they trusted Republicans over Democrats on the issue of education; by huge margins, they also said they favored banning instruction of sexuality and gender identity through the third grade and prohibiting trans students from competing in girls’ athletics competitions

Republicans can continue to win on other education issues like boys in girls’ sports, school choice, and here in Oregon the elimination of performance standards that show students continuing to fail post-pandemic.

Washington and California crush Oregon on starting teacher salary

National teacher union data shows that while Oregon is 13th in the country for average teacher salary, our starting teacher salary of $42,050 is 32nd in the country. This is made worse because Oregon lags every state in the west (except Idaho) on both the starting salary metric.

What should Oregon Republican candidates and lawmakers do?

It is arguable based on the basic comparison with neighboring states and the obvious effects on inflation that teachers are correctly asking for a significant wage increase. Teacher contracts in Oregon seem to be about three years so 2024 would be the first time they could request a significant wage increase to recoup inflation.

Oregon is clearly competitive in average salary, but new teachers need help and Oregon Republicans should lead on this issue by campaigning on raising teacher salaries.

How much? I think the amount isn’t as important as saying it needs to happen, but $45,000 seems like a reasonable number that puts us back in the top 20 or so states.

This raise costs about $20 million at most per year. I arrived at that estimate based on the total number of k-12 teachers reported by ODE (24,815). ODE also reports that number of “new teachers” (defined as 0-4 years of experience) is 28.6% of the teaching workforce so we arrive at 7,097 teachers. Multiplied by $2,950 raise from the starting salary from NEA we arrive at $20.9 million. You can shrink that cost significantly by only applying the raise for brand new teachers.

Addressing some concerns

I want to address some concerns that are likely to be raised in response to this proposal. The most obvious of which is “Won’t Democrats use this as an excuse to raise taxes?” The answer is “Yes, and they always were”. Any time a significant need for funding is presented to the Oregon Legislature, Democrats’ knee-jerk response is two things: raise taxes or steal the kicker.¹

I am not suggesting Republicans support raising taxes. Far from it. This is a perfect opportunity to support cutting ODE programs and urging local districts to cut programs that aren’t popular or don’t help kids succeed in order to free up resources to pay teachers and reduce class sizes.

Another reasonable objection could be that “Teacher pay should be based on merit”. My response is “Yes, but”. The raises being requested here are based primarily on economic conditions. I think candidates can say “we also need incentives for teachers who help kids succeed”, but that is a much larger conversation across the entire education system. We have a workforce problem and pay increases for new teachers will help.

Democrats have been effective at painting Republicans as anti-public education. I think that is mostly for reasons that are unfair and Republicans should continue to stand against policies like forced vaccinations, closing schools for COVID, restrictions on charter or homeschooling, forcing boys to play in girls sports, and a continued push to bring progressive politics into the classroom.

Many of these concerns are shared with the same swing voters we are trying to win. Even with recent enrollment declines, the vast majority of Oregon voters who are parents still have their kids in public schools. Supporting higher starting pay for teachers provides Republicans credibility to also advocate for reforming our education system.

These are policy arguments not personnel arguments. It’s important voters understand that our arguments against the teachers unions is not about individual teachers. Our arguments state laws or ODE regulations are not with local administrators who often do not have the power to override statewide policy mandates.

At the end of the day, if we allow Democrats to paint Republicans as the enemy to parents and teachers, then we will struggle to win swing voters. Democrats will not ever stop trying to make us look like the bad guys of education. We can strike back with specific policies that are reasonable and popular.

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1. Wildfire prevention is a recent example.