- Wildfire season hopefully is getting a real great relief from some rain. Wet fall would be good!

Owens Article - https://www.wweek.com/news/state/2026/08/17/this-harney-county-republicans-district-covers-37-of-oregon-much-of-it-is-burning-this-summer/

Farm Stands to the Rescue! From Drain to Culver - https://www.opb.org/article/2026/09/01/drain-farmstand-fresh-produce-option-food-desert/

https://www.opb.org/article/2026/09/02/central-oregon-food-desert-culver-fresh-produce-grocery-store/

BYE VIKKI -

Messaging is not pushing through.

Democrats like to text - apparently and then leak them to reporters.

Group chat underscores divisions among Oregon Democrats after activist confronted state senator

Mayor wants free tri-met passes for city employees.

Portland mayor wants to give a free public transit pass to all city workers

Defending immigrant communities and enforcing Oregon’s sanctuary protections and

Immigrant Justice Package.

Holding corporations accountable to the commitments they make to Oregon

communities when they receive public dollars.

Protecting farmworker overtime and Oregon’s climate protections.

Advancing universal preschool statewide and supporting the model created by

Preschool For All in Multnomah County.

Expanding access to higher education.

Strengthening campaign finance transparency.

Investing in restorative justice and programs that reduce recidivism.

Creating family-sustaining jobs through clean energy, advanced manufacturing, and

major infrastructure projects.

Meeting with the Working Families legislative caucus during the legislative session.

Republican hits a moratorium - https://www.aol.com/articles/mike-rogers-backs-data-center-163141000.html

Wyoming Freedom Caucus gets blown out of the water by “normal republicans”. https://cowboystatedaily.com/2026/08/19/near-total-massacre-for-freedom-caucus-in-wyoming-primary/?_wcsid=0955982BE74EB562AADE248A11855AAADFCB2BB2EFF85D54

Burke doesn’t flinch. From the back-room fights over who gets nominated to the strategy wars over cross-nomination and fusion candidates, this is the real conversation about where the LP stands and where it’s headed.

In this episode:

• Blood in the party — the infighting, the power struggles, and what ultimately came to a conclusion.

• How the sausage gets made — candidate selection, cross-nomination, and whether fusion tickets help or hurt - Drazan gets the nomination

• The policy fault lines — the National Guard, war and foreign entanglements, and the fights libertarians can’t stop having

• Plus the obligatory Star Trek vs. Star Wars detour, because of course

The Oregon Capital Chronicle just trained its investigative lens on Christine Drazan and her nonprofit, cataloguing consulting payments and fretting about “little oversight.” Suddenly the flow of money between a politician and a nonprofit is a scandal — provided the politician is a Republican. Apply that same standard to the other side of the aisle and the story gets a lot bigger, a lot darker, and a lot more consequential.

Stand for Children Oregon is not a quiet charity. It is an advocacy powerhouse that lobbies aggressively for larger state education budgets, celebrates when the Legislature appropriates tens or hundreds of millions for literacy and high-school success programs, and then routes substantial political money through its own PAC into Democratic campaigns. The biggest beneficiary in recent memory was Tina Kotek’s 2022 gubernatorial race.Here is how the machine actually works.

Stand for Children Oregon PAC does not raise the bulk of its money from ordinary Oregon parents writing $50 checks. The dominant source is repeated, large transfers and in-kind support from its national parent, Stand for Children Inc., a 501(c)(4) “social welfare” organization. That national entity is under no legal obligation to disclose its donors. The result is a classic dark-money conduit: undisclosed sources feed the national 501(c)(4), which feeds the Oregon PAC, which feeds Democratic candidates. Recent ORESTAR filings make the pattern unmistakable. In 2025 and 2026 alone you can see six-figure cash contributions and valuable in-kind support — staff time, voter files, email lists, text-outreach lists — moving from Stand for Children Inc. into the Oregon PAC. One stretch shows transfers of $84,567, $45,162, $30,000, $21,000, $20,000, $15,000 and more, alongside ongoing in-kind personnel and data support. Individual donors exist, but they are secondary. The PAC is largely a pass-through for national money whose original sources remain hidden.That PAC then spends. It cuts checks to legislative Democrats, school-board candidates across the state, and, in 2022, delivered a major infusion to Kotek’s campaign. Earlier reporting put the Stand for Children Oregon support for Kotek in the hundreds of thousands of dollars when cash and in-kind are combined.

The same network that helps shape education policy is also helping elect the people who control the education budget.The policy side of the ledger is equally revealing. Stand for Children has been a central advocate for the state’s major targeted education investments — the High School Success initiative that followed Measure 98 and the more recent Early Literacy Success Initiative that secured tens to low-hundreds of millions in public funding. These are real dollars pulled from Oregon taxpayers. The organization that lobbies for those appropriations later spends political money supporting the legislators and the governor who deliver them.

The personnel overlap tightens the loop. Sarah Pope, executive director of Stand for Children Oregon, previously served as chief of staff at the Oregon Department of Education and as deputy superintendent at the Northwest Regional Education Service District. She helped implement the very strategic investments her current organization now champions and expands. That kind of experience is valuable. It is also a textbook revolving door between the public payroll and the private advocacy shop that pressures for more public spending while its PAC underwrites the Democrats who vote for it.None of this is illegal under Oregon’s anything-goes campaign-finance rules. Unlimited contributions are allowed. 501(c)(4)s do not have to name their donors. The same statutes apply to groups of every ideological stripe.

The problem is the selective application of scrutiny. When a Republican-aligned nonprofit pays a consulting firm, it becomes a front-page concern about oversight. When a left-leaning advocacy network extracts political power from public education policy, routes undisclosed national money into a state PAC, and delivers that money to Democratic candidates, the same outlets suddenly lose interest.This is not civic engagement in the pure sense. It is a closed influence circuit: help design and expand public education programs to harvest political donations from a non-disclosing national 501(c)(4); then elect the politicians who expand those programs further. Oregon taxpayers fund the programs. Oregon voters never get to see the original donors who ultimately help choose the politicians. They simply live with the higher spending and the one-party outcomes that result.

The Capital Chronicle had no difficulty spotting “little oversight” when the money moved inside a Republican orbit. Consistency demands the same rigor here. Stand for Children has turned public education policy into a political asset, moved dark money through its Oregon PAC, and used that money to support Democrats. The scale is larger, the duration longer, and the policy impact deeper than the story that recently received such focused attention.If “follow the money” only travels in one direction, it is not journalism. It is partisan enforcement.

Oregonians deserve the full ledger; every nonprofit, every PAC, every revolving door, every undisclosed national transfer, regardless of which party benefits. Until that standard is applied evenly, the loudest claims of accountability will remain selective, and the most sophisticated influence operations will continue to operate in the shadows they prefer.

Senate races across country are interesting:

Maine

Michigan

Ohio

Alaska

Texas

Iowa

Minnesota

Georgia

New Hampshire

North Carolina

What no one is talking about - Oregon.

State Governor Races:

Toss ups:

Nevada

Arizona

Georgia

Wisconsin

Iowa

Michigan

Leans R:

Kansas

Ohio

New Hampshire

Lean D:

New Mexico

Maine

New York

Pennsylvania

Minnesota

Oregon

Oregon Caucus Money:

House R - Elmer 145k/175k evergreen = $320k

House D - Future 1.1/$66k Fahey/$100k Bowman = $1.3

Senate D - Leadership $720/Wagner $120/ Jama $50k = $900

Senate R - Leadership $6k/Starr $150k = $150k

Bring Balance $4.5 million

IPO nominations are out:

US Congress

Chris Beck — OR 02

Andrea Salinas — OR 06

Oregon Senate

Clay Bearnson — SD 03

James I. Manning, Jr. — SD 07

Melisa (Lisa) Finkle — SD 16

Dawn Regier — SD 21

Oregon House

Pam Marsh — HD 5

David Gomberg — HD 10

Ivan Maluski — HD 11

Joanna Robinson — HD 15

Roy Kaufmann — HD 18

Tom Andersen — HD 19

Lesly Munoz — HD 22

Sue Rieke Smith — HD 26

Brian Schimmel — HD 29

Cyrus Javadi — HD 32

Jules Walters — HD 37

April Dobson — HD 39

Pat Hubbell — HD 40

Thuy Tran — HD 45

Ricki Ruiz — HD 50

Emerson Levy — HD 53

• Crosstabs Merch

• Hillsboro data center story

Get more from Reagan Knopp in the Substack app

Available for iOS and Android

Get the app

• Washington County Legislative Contests Are Nail-Biters, but the Late Votes Lean Left | Willamette Week

• Oregon Election Results

Bryan and Reagan discuss The Oregonian’s poll in the Portland Metro area and make a couple of (not that bold) predictions about the primary election on Tuesday, May 19th, 2026.

Oregonian poll topline from DHM research
Oregonian poll crosstabs with DHM research

It’s a week until primary election day which means there’s still no results! Bryan and Reagan discuss Bernie Sanders, Gov. Kotek’s approval rating in Portland, comments from the Chief Prosperity Officer Tim Knopp, and more!

• Kotek’s popularity craters in Portland, poll shows: What that could mean for Republican candidates - oregonlive.com

• Powerful Lawmakers Say They Don’t Anticipate Tapping Education Stability Fund This Year - WWeek

• New report shows economic impact of tourism in state, region - YourOregonNews.com

• Rival-turned-adviser hints Kotek’s prosperity council to chip at Oregon corporate activity tax • Oregon Capital Chronicle

https://www.cnn.com/election/2026/results/indiana-state-senate-primary

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/May-19-2026-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf

Ballot returns are starting to come in. Update on primaries. The link above gets updated every day from SOS office.

Spencer Pratt putting on a masterclass of being authentic in the LA Mayor Debate - a real debate.

State Rep candidate for HD 9, joins Bryan while Reagan is taking the kids to a waterpark somewhere!

We have conversations about rural health care, roads, and all things going on with his primary campaign.

And we both rail on DEQ for trying to shut down our fishing industry in Oregon. I hate DEQ.

If you missed the Governor debate wrap up I did on KOIN>

Rep. Matt Bunch is the newest member of the House in Oregon. He was appointed after Christine Drazan went to the Senate. HD 51 is centered in Canby, but extends beyond that in Clackamas county.

Sandy Moratorium details: https://www.ci.sandy.or.us/publicworks/page/development-moratorium-information

Rep. Bunch campaign website -

https://www.mattbunch51.com/

Bryan and Reagan discuss the exclusive Crosstabs commissioned poll for the 2026 Republican primary for governor. Transparency is important for Crosstabs. Download the polling memo, topline report, and crosstabs (ha!) to see the information for yourself.

Oregon Statewide Poll Topline Reports 4 24 26

504KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Oregon Poll Analysis April 2026

7.88KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Oregon Statewide Poll Crosstabs 4 24 26

355KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

J.L. Wilson joins the podcast to discuss the methodology and results of his recently released poll in the 2026 Republican primary for governor of Oregon. Drazan has a lead. Is there anyone who can catch up?

Topline is a brief Oregon politics newsletter from the Crosstabs podcasters Bryan Iverson & Reagan Knopp. Send feedback or tips to hello@crosstabs.studio.

There’s a nonprofit operating out of a suite on NW 2nd Avenue in Portland that you’ve probably never heard of. They’d like to keep it that way — at least until their candidates are already in office.

Oregon Futures Lab (OFL) — formerly Color PAC Action Fund — exists to recruit, train, and elect progressive candidates of color to public office across Oregon. School boards, city councils, the legislature. All of it. They’re not shy about this in their materials. What they are shy about is the web of insider connections that makes the whole operation run.

Let’s pull on a few threads.

The State Employee on the Political Board

OFL board member Dr. Bryce Coefield holds a taxpayer-funded position as an Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion Steward at the Oregon Department of Education. He is simultaneously serving on the board of an organization whose explicit mission is to elect people to offices that set education policy in Oregon.

That’s not a technicality. That’s a state employee — on your dime — helping run a political recruitment operation targeting the very institutions he works for. It’s the kind of thing that would generate wall-to-wall coverage if it were a Republican.

The Meyer Memorial Trust Connection

Board member Nancy Haque is the Director of Policy and Programs at Meyer Memorial Trust, one of the largest private grantmakers in the state. Meyer has distributed over $930 million to more than 3,200 Oregon organizations. Many of those same organizations also receive state contracts and public funding.

Meyer and OFL aren’t just philosophically aligned — they operate in the same tightly-knit ecosystem, funding overlapping groups, sharing personnel, and advancing the same political project under the banner of “equity work.” When people wonder how the Oregon left maintains such a durable funding infrastructure, Meyer is a big part of the answer.

The IRCO Alumni Network

Board member Josué Peña Juárez comes out of IRCO — the Immigrant and Refugee Community Organization — which holds more than 54 government contracts with the State of Oregon and receives federal refugee resettlement dollars routed through Oregon DHHS. IRCO is a fine organization doing legitimate work. But it is also deeply embedded in the state funding apparatus, and its alumni are now directing a political operation aimed at electing a specific ideological slate of candidates statewide.

The Structure Is the Strategy

OFL is a 501(c)4 — meaning donations aren’t tax deductible and it can engage in political activity freely. It’s fiscally sponsored by Tides Advocacy, the national left-wing funding clearinghouse that has processed hundreds of millions of dollars for progressive causes across the country. Its sister organization, the OFL Education Fund, operates as a 501(c)3 to collect tax-deductible charitable donations for the “educational” side of the same mission.

One arm for politics. One arm for tax-deductible fundraising. It’s a well-worn playbook and it’s completely legal. It’s also how you build a durable political machine while maintaining the aesthetic of a nonprofit doing community work.

Why It Matters Heading Into 2026

Oregon Republicans are already staring down a challenging map this cycle. OFL has endorsed candidates in legislative races, school board contests, and local offices across the state — and they’ve been doing it for years while most people weren’t paying attention. They recruit early, train candidates on how to govern once elected, and plug winners into a network of allied organizations.

That’s infrastructure. And understanding where it comes from — state employees, publicly-funded nonprofits, major private foundations — is the first step to competing against it.

If you’ve got tips on other groups operating the same playbook, send them our way: hello@crosstabs.studio.

One of the most important federal fundraising deadlines of the year is now passed. Yesterday at 8:59 pm (11:59 EST) all candidates for Congress were required to submit Q1 2026 financial activity to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). This report covers all fundraising and spending activity from January 1, 2026 to March 31, 2026.

The numbers suggest that Democrats hold a significant advantage in all the races for U.S. House that could be competing and the sole contest for U.S. Senate.

U.S. Senate

Senator Jeff Merkley is not considered to be in any danger. At this point that is true whether the Democrats achieve a blue wave in November or not. The last time Oregon’s U.S. Senate race was considered competitive was briefly in 2014. Dr. Monica Wehby won a contested primary as a moderate Republican and earned national endorsements from folks like Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich. She even had a Koch brothers backed Super PAC spending on her behalf. That race ended in disaster with allegations that Wehby stalked an ex-boyfriend. After investing significant time dollars, the Koch reservations disappeared and national Republicans wrote off the race.

The past two elections for U.S. Senate in Oregon have been almost identical. Both Merkley and New York icon, Ron Wyden, faced the same Republican opponent: Jo Rae Perkins of Albany (that’s Oregon this time not New York). Merkley received 58% to Perkins’ 39% while Wyden got 57% to Perkins’ 41% two years later.

In Q1 ‘26 Merkley raised just over $1 million bringing his total raised this cycle to $7.2 million. His current cash on hand is $6.5 million. Jo Rae Perkins raised $5,000 and has $1,200 on hand. No that isn’t a typo. Her campaign strategy appears to lean heavily on having appeared on this Republican primary ballot three times (2016, 2020, 2022).

State Senator David Brock Smith (Port Orford) entered the race on March 3rd, and raised nearly $25,000 in less than a month. He needs to hope he can exponentially increase those results so he can introduce himself to Republican voters outside his Southern Oregon Coast district in the State Senate. He will need it if he wants to offset Perkins significant name ID.

Congress

One of the challenges specific to Oregon Republicans fundraising for Congress is that without the ability to self-fund, fundraising totals are heavily dependent on whether or not your seat is nationally targeted.

Unfortunately, this is the first cycle since 2016 that no Oregon district has made the initial target list for National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Without that designation bundlers, big donors, and their Super PACs are unlikely to show interest in Beaver state Republican bid for congress.

4th District

Speaking of rematches, we have one down in the 4th District between Congresswoman Val Hoyle and attorney Monique DeSpain.

DeSpain made some brief hay last year after she out-raised Hoyle in the final quarter of 2025. That trend didn’t continue in 2026 thought as Hoyle raised $220k and has $500k cash on hand. DeSpain raised $158k and has $321k in the bank. DeSpain is in the best position money-wise of any Republican congressional candidate in the state. Unfortunately for her that’s not a high bar.

5th District

First term incumbent Congresswoman Janelle Bynum is the only Democrat the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC, pronounced “dee-triple-see”) is even remotely concerned about, having designated her as a Frontline Incumbent. That appears to have bolstered her fundraising to the tune of $750k in the quarter and a cash on hand total of $2.2 million.

Republicans are missing the powerhouse fundraiser that was former Congresswoman now Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. The top candidate to take on Bynum this time is two-term Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair. She’s being challenged by an anti-Trump Republican named Jonathan Lockwood. He previously worked in the Colorado and Oregon legislatures as a press flack for Republicans.

Adair raised $92,218 in the most recent quarter and has $189k cash on hand. Lockwood didn’t meet the minimum fundraising threshold of $5,000. This will make it hard to launch his candidacy beyond the limited reaches of free social media. Adair posted better numbers in the previous quarter to the tune of $184k. Winning may help her some, but she needs the national political environment to shift her direction enough to bolster local fundraising and hopefully convince the NRCC to take another look at the recently red 5th congressional district.