• Crosstabs Merch

• Hillsboro data center story

Get more from Reagan Knopp in the Substack app

Available for iOS and Android

Get the app

• Washington County Legislative Contests Are Nail-Biters, but the Late Votes Lean Left | Willamette Week

• Oregon Election Results

Bryan and Reagan discuss The Oregonian’s poll in the Portland Metro area and make a couple of (not that bold) predictions about the primary election on Tuesday, May 19th, 2026.

Oregonian poll topline from DHM research
Oregonian poll crosstabs with DHM research

It’s a week until primary election day which means there’s still no results! Bryan and Reagan discuss Bernie Sanders, Gov. Kotek’s approval rating in Portland, comments from the Chief Prosperity Officer Tim Knopp, and more!

• Kotek’s popularity craters in Portland, poll shows: What that could mean for Republican candidates - oregonlive.com

• Powerful Lawmakers Say They Don’t Anticipate Tapping Education Stability Fund This Year - WWeek

• New report shows economic impact of tourism in state, region - YourOregonNews.com

• Rival-turned-adviser hints Kotek’s prosperity council to chip at Oregon corporate activity tax • Oregon Capital Chronicle

https://www.cnn.com/election/2026/results/indiana-state-senate-primary

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/May-19-2026-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf

Ballot returns are starting to come in. Update on primaries. The link above gets updated every day from SOS office.

Spencer Pratt putting on a masterclass of being authentic in the LA Mayor Debate - a real debate.

State Rep candidate for HD 9, joins Bryan while Reagan is taking the kids to a waterpark somewhere!

We have conversations about rural health care, roads, and all things going on with his primary campaign.

And we both rail on DEQ for trying to shut down our fishing industry in Oregon. I hate DEQ.

If you missed the Governor debate wrap up I did on KOIN>

Rep. Matt Bunch is the newest member of the House in Oregon. He was appointed after Christine Drazan went to the Senate. HD 51 is centered in Canby, but extends beyond that in Clackamas county.

Sandy Moratorium details: https://www.ci.sandy.or.us/publicworks/page/development-moratorium-information

Rep. Bunch campaign website -

https://www.mattbunch51.com/

Bryan and Reagan discuss the exclusive Crosstabs commissioned poll for the 2026 Republican primary for governor. Transparency is important for Crosstabs. Download the polling memo, topline report, and crosstabs (ha!) to see the information for yourself.

Oregon Statewide Poll Topline Reports 4 24 26

504KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Oregon Poll Analysis April 2026

7.88KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Oregon Statewide Poll Crosstabs 4 24 26

355KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

J.L. Wilson joins the podcast to discuss the methodology and results of his recently released poll in the 2026 Republican primary for governor of Oregon. Drazan has a lead. Is there anyone who can catch up?

Topline is a brief Oregon politics newsletter from the Crosstabs podcasters Bryan Iverson & Reagan Knopp. Send feedback or tips to hello@crosstabs.studio.

There’s a nonprofit operating out of a suite on NW 2nd Avenue in Portland that you’ve probably never heard of. They’d like to keep it that way — at least until their candidates are already in office.

Oregon Futures Lab (OFL) — formerly Color PAC Action Fund — exists to recruit, train, and elect progressive candidates of color to public office across Oregon. School boards, city councils, the legislature. All of it. They’re not shy about this in their materials. What they are shy about is the web of insider connections that makes the whole operation run.

Let’s pull on a few threads.

The State Employee on the Political Board

OFL board member Dr. Bryce Coefield holds a taxpayer-funded position as an Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion Steward at the Oregon Department of Education. He is simultaneously serving on the board of an organization whose explicit mission is to elect people to offices that set education policy in Oregon.

That’s not a technicality. That’s a state employee — on your dime — helping run a political recruitment operation targeting the very institutions he works for. It’s the kind of thing that would generate wall-to-wall coverage if it were a Republican.

The Meyer Memorial Trust Connection

Board member Nancy Haque is the Director of Policy and Programs at Meyer Memorial Trust, one of the largest private grantmakers in the state. Meyer has distributed over $930 million to more than 3,200 Oregon organizations. Many of those same organizations also receive state contracts and public funding.

Meyer and OFL aren’t just philosophically aligned — they operate in the same tightly-knit ecosystem, funding overlapping groups, sharing personnel, and advancing the same political project under the banner of “equity work.” When people wonder how the Oregon left maintains such a durable funding infrastructure, Meyer is a big part of the answer.

The IRCO Alumni Network

Board member Josué Peña Juárez comes out of IRCO — the Immigrant and Refugee Community Organization — which holds more than 54 government contracts with the State of Oregon and receives federal refugee resettlement dollars routed through Oregon DHHS. IRCO is a fine organization doing legitimate work. But it is also deeply embedded in the state funding apparatus, and its alumni are now directing a political operation aimed at electing a specific ideological slate of candidates statewide.

The Structure Is the Strategy

OFL is a 501(c)4 — meaning donations aren’t tax deductible and it can engage in political activity freely. It’s fiscally sponsored by Tides Advocacy, the national left-wing funding clearinghouse that has processed hundreds of millions of dollars for progressive causes across the country. Its sister organization, the OFL Education Fund, operates as a 501(c)3 to collect tax-deductible charitable donations for the “educational” side of the same mission.

One arm for politics. One arm for tax-deductible fundraising. It’s a well-worn playbook and it’s completely legal. It’s also how you build a durable political machine while maintaining the aesthetic of a nonprofit doing community work.

Why It Matters Heading Into 2026

Oregon Republicans are already staring down a challenging map this cycle. OFL has endorsed candidates in legislative races, school board contests, and local offices across the state — and they’ve been doing it for years while most people weren’t paying attention. They recruit early, train candidates on how to govern once elected, and plug winners into a network of allied organizations.

That’s infrastructure. And understanding where it comes from — state employees, publicly-funded nonprofits, major private foundations — is the first step to competing against it.

If you’ve got tips on other groups operating the same playbook, send them our way: hello@crosstabs.studio.

One of the most important federal fundraising deadlines of the year is now passed. Yesterday at 8:59 pm (11:59 EST) all candidates for Congress were required to submit Q1 2026 financial activity to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). This report covers all fundraising and spending activity from January 1, 2026 to March 31, 2026.

The numbers suggest that Democrats hold a significant advantage in all the races for U.S. House that could be competing and the sole contest for U.S. Senate.

U.S. Senate

Senator Jeff Merkley is not considered to be in any danger. At this point that is true whether the Democrats achieve a blue wave in November or not. The last time Oregon’s U.S. Senate race was considered competitive was briefly in 2014. Dr. Monica Wehby won a contested primary as a moderate Republican and earned national endorsements from folks like Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich. She even had a Koch brothers backed Super PAC spending on her behalf. That race ended in disaster with allegations that Wehby stalked an ex-boyfriend. After investing significant time dollars, the Koch reservations disappeared and national Republicans wrote off the race.

The past two elections for U.S. Senate in Oregon have been almost identical. Both Merkley and New York icon, Ron Wyden, faced the same Republican opponent: Jo Rae Perkins of Albany (that’s Oregon this time not New York). Merkley received 58% to Perkins’ 39% while Wyden got 57% to Perkins’ 41% two years later.

In Q1 ‘26 Merkley raised just over $1 million bringing his total raised this cycle to $7.2 million. His current cash on hand is $6.5 million. Jo Rae Perkins raised $5,000 and has $1,200 on hand. No that isn’t a typo. Her campaign strategy appears to lean heavily on having appeared on this Republican primary ballot three times (2016, 2020, 2022).

State Senator David Brock Smith (Port Orford) entered the race on March 3rd, and raised nearly $25,000 in less than a month. He needs to hope he can exponentially increase those results so he can introduce himself to Republican voters outside his Southern Oregon Coast district in the State Senate. He will need it if he wants to offset Perkins significant name ID.

Congress

One of the challenges specific to Oregon Republicans fundraising for Congress is that without the ability to self-fund, fundraising totals are heavily dependent on whether or not your seat is nationally targeted.

Unfortunately, this is the first cycle since 2016 that no Oregon district has made the initial target list for National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Without that designation bundlers, big donors, and their Super PACs are unlikely to show interest in Beaver state Republican bid for congress.

4th District

Speaking of rematches, we have one down in the 4th District between Congresswoman Val Hoyle and attorney Monique DeSpain.

DeSpain made some brief hay last year after she out-raised Hoyle in the final quarter of 2025. That trend didn’t continue in 2026 thought as Hoyle raised $220k and has $500k cash on hand. DeSpain raised $158k and has $321k in the bank. DeSpain is in the best position money-wise of any Republican congressional candidate in the state. Unfortunately for her that’s not a high bar.

5th District

First term incumbent Congresswoman Janelle Bynum is the only Democrat the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC, pronounced “dee-triple-see”) is even remotely concerned about, having designated her as a Frontline Incumbent. That appears to have bolstered her fundraising to the tune of $750k in the quarter and a cash on hand total of $2.2 million.

Republicans are missing the powerhouse fundraiser that was former Congresswoman now Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. The top candidate to take on Bynum this time is two-term Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair. She’s being challenged by an anti-Trump Republican named Jonathan Lockwood. He previously worked in the Colorado and Oregon legislatures as a press flack for Republicans.

Adair raised $92,218 in the most recent quarter and has $189k cash on hand. Lockwood didn’t meet the minimum fundraising threshold of $5,000. This will make it hard to launch his candidacy beyond the limited reaches of free social media. Adair posted better numbers in the previous quarter to the tune of $184k. Winning may help her some, but she needs the national political environment to shift her direction enough to bolster local fundraising and hopefully convince the NRCC to take another look at the recently red 5th congressional district.

Ben Fisher in HD 18 wants legislators to only eat Bologna

WWeek.com steps into it - https://www.wweek.com/news/business/2026/04/12/how-one-candidate-stepped-in-it-with-trade-unions-while-discussing-data-centers/

Spotlight: Rep. Ken Helm - Oregon Journalism Project

Rural oregon is always a target of the hard left.

Yes campaign on the gas tax by democrats? I guess not… https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2026/04/democrats-fought-hard-for-oregons-road-tax-hikes-why-theyre-now-effectively-silent-as-voters-decide.html

Speaking of the hard left -“Fines and fees are not justice. They don’t make our community safer. They keep people trapped,” Davis said. “Every day I see when we remove these barriers, people don’t fail, they thrive. It’s time to stop punishing poverty.” https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/04/08/new-report-puts-outstanding-oregon-criminal-court-sanctions-at-more-than-1-4b/

Iran is killing Republicans. What is DJT thinking? We have to get into it. This is not MAGA

https://polymarket.com/iran

All things democrat today on the Podcast. Bryan and Reagan welcomed long time Democrat Strategist Jake Weigler on to run through some of the entertaining democrat primaries across the state. The full list of candidates in the seats we discussed are below.

About Jake: (from his website)

Recently named “one of the most accomplished political consultants in Portland” by Willamette Week, Jake Weigler is a founding partner at Praxis Political.

After securing a masters’ degree in political science, Jake shifted from studying politics to doing it. He discovered that what he loves best is overcoming the odds to achieve unanticipated results that impact our larger community. Using creative strategy and tenacity, Jake prides himself on helping people from diverse backgrounds and perspectives transform their values into successful political action.

Before political consulting, Jake worked in Washington D.C., Texas, and Oregon. Past employers include the Democratic National Committee, Media Matters for America, U.S. Senator Ron Wyden, Governor Ted Kulongoski, Attorney General Hardy Myers, Superintendent for Public Instruction Susan Castillo, and the Oregon Environmental Council.

Jake earned degrees from Lincoln High School, New York University, and The University of Texas at Austin. He is the board chair of the Portland Urban Debate League, a nonprofit preparing students in underserved Portland metro area high schools to compete in interscholastic debate. Jake lives in Southeast Portland with his wife and two children.

https://www.praxispolitical.com/jake-weigler/

List of all the candidates we discussed is below:

It will for sure be an interesting April and May!

Go to his website to learn more about Tony DeBone re-election effort.

https://www.electtonydebone.com/

Gas tax is for sure headed to the May ballot, both state and federal judges deny

https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/briefs/federal-judge-denies-anti-gas-tax-groups-attempt-to-extend-voters-pamphlet-deadline/?emci=c9762d65-bb26-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&emdi=a0f66297-c026-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&ceid=435810

Multnomah county has a $4billion dollar budget, but they are broke

https://www.wweek.com/news/2026/03/18/why-multnomah-county-has-4-billion-but-not-a-nickel-to-spend/

Is Oregon heading down the toilet fast?

https://www.koin.com/news/oregon/oregon-residents-have-among-the-highest-levels-of-stress-in-the-us-study-finds/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_KOINNews

Show notes

• Kids’ Online Safety Requires Precision, Not Centralization | American Enterprise Institute - AEI

• Protecting Youth Online: A Guide to Parental Controls and Safety Tools | American Enterprise Institute - AEI

We had a great conversation with Chris Dudley as he runs for Governor. We spent the better part of an hour discussing Michael Jordan, Moda Center, Drugs and homelessness, education, Portland and so much more.

You can learn more about Chris Dudley at https://www.dudley4oregon.com/

We discuss the poll results Mark did on the Oregon Governor’s race, results at

https://www.predictoregon.com/